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A Fed rate cut could send some mortgage rates even higher

March 19, 2008 08:21 by haydonyoung


Rate CutThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point Tuesday, but don't expect mortgage rates to go down too. In fact, home loans could be heading higher.

Consider recent history: The Fed issued an emergency cut of short-term rates in early January, and then trimmed more just a few days later - but the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has responded by bouncing up from 5.6% to 6.4%.

The Fed's main tool is control over the short-term fed funds rate, which determines what banks charge each other for overnight loans. Long-term mortgage rates are mostly tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is determined by bond traders worldwide.

"There is a long disconnect between the fed funds rate and fixed mortgage rates," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage and consumer loan information publisher HSH.com.

Inflation drives long-term fixed rates. When the Fed cuts short-term rates, the intent is to lower borrowing costs for corporations so that they'll invest and hire. But this economic growth can lead to inflation.

That in turn leads bond traders to demand higher rates on their long-term bonds - and that drives up mortgage rates too.

"Mortgage rates are determined by how fearful the market is of inflation," said Gumbinger.

The Fed began a series of cuts to its key interest rate last September, taking the rate to 2.25%, from 5.25%.

ARM borrowers may get help. There is more of a connection between Fed rate cuts and short-term and adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). In fact, homeowners with ARM loans could see lower rates from further interest rate cuts.

Adjustable rate mortgages are pegged to a number of different indexes, including the one-year Treasury yield and the international Libor, or London Interbank Offered Rate, which tend to move with the Fed funds rate.

With Tuesday's rate cut, the cumulative effect of the Fed cuts could entirely offset what would have been a significant rate reset for many homeowners.

For instance, a borrower with an adjustable rate of 4.5% could have faced a rate reset up to 7.5% before the Fed started cutting rates in September. Before the rate cuts, that homeowner would have seen an increase of $370 in monthly payments on a $200,000 loan.

But after Tuesday that rate could reset only a little higher. And for some, the rate might not go up at all - and may actually drop - according to Greg McBride of Bankrate.com. "The Fed rate cuts far are more significant to [borrowers with ARMs] in terms of staving off delinquencies on loans," he said.

Long-term rate solution. Sending long-term fixed rates back down will be more complicated than fixing inflation, because the continuing housing crisis is also exacerbating the rise in long-term fixed rates.

Generally mortgage rates are about 2 percentage points higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which currently stands at 3.29%.

But the housing market is in such turmoil that rates are even higher right now, with lenders concerned that borrowers will not be able to pay back loans.

"The 30-year fixed rate mortgage should be at 5.5%, but instead it's above 6%," said McBride. "The 30-year jumbo loan [a large mortgage that is not federally guaranteed] is a full two percentage points higher than it should be."

So for long-term fixed mortgage rates to go down, the Fed must successfully make banks more willing to lend again.

By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer

Click here for the original article

 


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Stop Paying Your Mortgage and Walk Away?

March 13, 2008 21:23 by haydonyoung

The statistics are all over the place, but it is clear that not only are mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures skyrocketing, but millions of homeowners are "upside-down" in their mortgages; that is they owe more to the bank than their houses are worth and a report this week predicted that number would be growing exponentially.

More and more the talking heads on television have suggested that these upside-down homeowners should cut their losses and hand the bank the keys to the castle. Some have even suggested that cash-stretched and equity-poor debtors should continue paying the credit card bills even as they stop paying the mortgage. The rationale? The house is already a dead loss and continued credit card access will help the homeowner get back on his or her feet.

The attitude was unheard of in an earlier day. An obligation was an obligation and there was none as important as the one that kept a roof over one's head. But there is a lot about the current financial crisis that has changed the attitudes of many Americans toward that mortgage payment.

 

First of all, many borrowers feel as though they were taken for a ride by their lenders; talked or fooled into mortgages they couldn't afford. Even though borrowers were often complicit in the misrepresentation involved in their loans, they feel aggrieved by the process and not responsible for the result.

Then there is the mob rule effect. The media is so full of reports on the foreclosure crisis and there are so many anecdotal reports of people mailing keys to their lenders (CNN Money says it is called "jingle mail") that it has taken on the cover of "everybody is doing it," and many people are.

Well we have said it before - there is no situation so dire that someone can't figure out a way to make a buck off of it.

The newest wrinkle is a company that assists homeowners with the process of walking away from their mortgages. You Walk Away, LLC. asks visitors to its website "Is foreclosure right for you?" and follows up with five questions to help a homeowner make the decision:

  • Are you stressed out about your mortgage payments?
  • Do you have little or no equity in your home?
  • Have you had trouble trying to sell your house?
  • Is your home sinking under the waves of the real estate crash?
  • What if you could live payment free for up to 8 months or more and walk away without owing a penny?

Those who self select - "well gosh yes, that bit about living free for 8 months is the clincher" - and who qualify by answering some simple questions about their situation, are offered the opportunity to purchase a You Walk Away plan. For a subscription that costs $995 the company will:

  • Send a letter to the lender that promises to stop collection telephone calls.
  • Provide subscribers with a free 1/2 hour consultation with an attorney to make sure the foreclosure has been properly filed.
  • Inform the homeowner of the exact number of days he can continue to live in the home payment free and update that schedule regularly.
  • Enroll the borrower in You Walk Away's affiliate credit repair plan which they claim has removed thousands of foreclosures from clients' credit reports.

     

  • Appoint an experienced You Walk Away advocate available to answer any of the borrower's questions throughout the process.
  • Provide information on state laws that, in select states, will prevent the bank from attempting to collect deficiency money.

It appears that the You Walk Away plan, unlike a Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure, does not stop the foreclosure, just mutes some of the aggravation and uncertainty that usually accompanies it. A Deed in Lieu, if the bank is willing to accept it, may be a more credit history friendly solution and it may be possible to obtain assurances in writing that the bank will not pursue a deficiency.

All of what You Walk Away does is probably legal; possibly it is effective (although the promise of credit repair is always a red flag); but before you plunk down the nearly $1000 fee, please contact a non-profit credit counselor in your area.

One of the questions that you need to ask a counselor is whether, in your state, a lender is able to go after the difference between the value of the house and the balance of the loan. You Walk Away started in California (it is reported to be expanding quickly into other states) which does have an anti-deficiency law, but not all states do.

A list of reputable credit counselors can be found at www.hud.gov, check under "At Your Service" on the home page.

Original Article by MortgageNewsDaily.com - click here


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